华南南部前汛期气温与阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾北部海温的关系

Relationship between the Preflood Period Tempreture in the South of South China and SST in Arabian Sea and North of Bay of Bengal

利用国家气候中心整编的1951—2008年中国160站的月平均气温资料,选出华南地区10个代表站,分析了华南南部前汛期气温异常的季节、年际和年代际变化的时空特征。结果表明,58年的温度变化总趋势是增加的,1950—1990年代初为相对低温期,1990年代中期开始温度明显升高。华南南部前汛期气温异常存在2,4和5年的年际周期和12年和19年的年代际周期。在研究华南南部前汛期气温异常的基础上,还分析了华南南部前汛期气温与阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾北部海温的关系,发现前一年10~11月阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾北部海域存在一个与次年华南南部前汛期气温有较好正相关的关键区（85°~97°E,5°~16°N）（简称关键区）,当前一年10~11月关键区海温异常偏高（偏低）,次年华南南部前汛期气温偏高（偏低）,关键区海温异常和华南南部前汛期气温异常都具有准2年、准5年和准12年的振荡周期,冷、暖水年次年的华南南部前汛期环流形势存在很大的差异。

Using the monthly mean air temperature data at 160 stations in China during 1951-2008,10 stations are selected as representative stations in the south of South China.Based on the analyses of seasonal and interannual variations,the interannual and interdecadal variations of air temperatures in the preflood period of south of South China are emphatically studied.The results show that the air temperature in the preflood period of south of South China is slightly colder than that of before 1990′s,and much warmer than that of in 1990′s.The warming trend is obvious in the recent 10 years.The air temperature anomaly exists 2,4,5,12 and 19-year periodic variations in the preflood period of south of South China.The warming trend is similar with that in most areas of China.And the relationships between the temperature anomaly in the preflood period of south of South China and SSTA in Arabian sea and north of Bay of Bengal are investigated by means of SVD analysis.The Key region and the key period of time which influences the temperature anomaly in the preflood period of south of South China are obtained.And SSTA of the Key region from October to November in the last year has the best positive correlation with the temperature in the preflood period of south of South China.