基于泊松分布的川东暴雨概率特征分析

Analysis on the Rainstorm Probability in the Eastern Region of Sichuan Based on Poisson Distribution

暴雨是川东地区主要的气象灾害之一,对经济建设有重大影响。为进一步揭示该地区暴雨的统计特征,利用川东地区有代表性的4个测站(重庆、达州、巴中、南充)47年间(1961-2007年)4-10月日降水量资料,借助于泊松分布模式对该地区暴雨概率特征进行了分析。结果表明:用泊松分布模式能很好地描述川东地区的暴雨概率分布特征;模式计算均得出所研究的4站每年出现3次暴雨的机率最大。

Rainstorm is one of the major meteorological disasters in the eastern region of Sichuan.And it can cause significant influence on the econormic construction.In order to further reveal the statistical features of the rainstorm in this region,based on the daily precipitation data of four representative stations（Chongqing,Dazhou,Bazhong,Nanchong） from April to October during 1961-2007,the rainstorm probability is analized by Poisson probability distribution model.The results can be concluded as follows：Poisson distribution model can well reflect the rainstorm probability features of the region.All the statistical analysis shows that 3 times of rainstorm every year has the largest probability in that region.