投机、期货市场与原油价格变动

Speculation,Futures Market and Crude Oil Price Fluctuation

从原油的金融资产属性出发,探讨了原油期货市场中的投机行为下价格泡沫的存在性,在实证中针对美国商品交易委员会报告中的不足进行修正,考察了多种因素对价格的影响.结果表明:投机是近一轮油价波动的原因,但却无法据此质疑原油期货市场的作用,原油期货市场仍在总量上对价格起到了稳定的负反馈作用.结论在肯定投机推高油价的同时,证明石油期货市场并非是价格波动的根源,相反具有调节作用,从而强调了石油期货市场监管的重要性.

Based on the financial assets property of crude oil,this paper discussed whether there exist price bubbles due to speculation behavior in crude oil futures market.Through pointing out the shortcomings of the CFTC（Commodity Futures Trading Commission） reports,this paper took into consideration the influences of several factors on the crude oil price empirically.The results show that speculation in the crude oil futures market is an important factor contributing to the recent fluctuating oil price,but the crude oil futures market as a whole still has stable negative feedbacks affecting crude oil price.Thus the role of crude oil futures market should not be questioned.The results not only confirm that speculative behavior gives rise to the abnormal fluctuations in oil price,but also prove that the crude oil futures market plays a regulatory role.Moreover,this paper further stresses the importance of supervision in the crude oil futures market.