我国近10a热源点统计分析研究

Statistical Analysis of High Temperature Spots of China in Recent Ten Years

火情监测是我国利用气象卫星最早开展的环境监测业务。通过对我国2000年3月-2009年5月的热源点的统计分析,发现了不同时期热源点的分布情况及其规律性:每年的1-4月以及11-12月,热源点主要分布在西南和东北地区;5-6月和9-10月,热源点主要集中在东北三省和中原地区的安徽、江苏、河南等农业大省;7、8月份全国热源点相对比较少。此外,通过计算不同时间长度热源点之间的相关系数,确定热源点之间的最佳相关长度为5天,作为热源点预警预报时的参考时间长度(天数)。

Fire monitoring is the first environmental monitoring business using meteorological satellite in China.Based on statistical analysis of high temperature spots of China about March 2000—May 2009,the paper finds their distribution and regularity in different times： from January to April and November to December,the high temperature spots mainly distributes in southwest and northeast;May to June and September to October,mostly concentrates in the Northeast China and central plains provinces such as Anhui,Jiangsu and Henan agricultural provinces;less in July and August.Otherwise,by calculating the correlation coefficient of high temperature spots between different time lengths,the paper confirms their optimal correlation length is 5 days,which considered as the reference days of warning forecast.