CNG汽车产业综合效益评价方法

An evaluation method for the comprehensive benefits of CNG vehicle industry

随着CNG汽车产业的快速发展,所产生的综合效益也开始显现。然而,由于各地产业规模、结构和发展水平的不同,如何评价其产业综合效益就成为难题。通常,综合效益评价采用层次分析和模糊综合评判相结合的方法,但专家认为评判的成分较多,难以进一步挖掘产业发展结构数据所反映的信息。为此,通过分析CNG汽车产业的构成和产生效益的特点,构建起由反映经济效益、社会效益和环境效益3个方面共15个评价指标构成的分层次的评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法确定出各指标的贡献权重。为尽可能消除评价过程中人为因素对结果的影响,对评价指标进行了标准化处理,并引入修正系数以消除产业规模、结构和发展水平差异化的影响,建立起基于该产业基础数据的综合效益评价模型。该评价方法减少了常规评价模型中的人为评判因素,为全面、客观地反映CNG汽车产业发展效果进行了尝试。通过对四川省和自贡市的实例计算,验证了模型的合理性,为科学地评价CNG汽车产业发展效果提供了依据。

The CNG vehicle industry has been in rapid development and its comprehensive benefits are getting revealed to some degree.However,due to its different industrial scale,structure and developing level at different places,it becomes a difficulty how to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of the CNG vehicle industry.An evaluation method for comprehensive benefits is usually made by use of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation but experts consider that these two methods involve so many parameters as not to explore enough information reflected from the industrial structural data.In view of this,through an analysis of the structure of the CNG vehicle industry and the features of its generated benefits,we set up a hierarchical evaluation index system made up by 15 indexes from 3 aspects of economic,social and environmental benefits,and adopt the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index.In order to eliminate the ill effect of human factor on the evaluation results as far as possible,we standardize the evaluation indexes and introduce the correction coefficient to eliminate the effects of the diversity of the industrial scale,structure and developing level,thus build an evaluation model for comprehensive benefits based on the basic data of this industry.Without the disturbance of human factor in the evaluating process as in the conventional models,this model provides a trial for a complete and objective reflection of the comprehensive benefits of CNG vehicle industry.Two cases of calculation in Sichuan province and Zigong city demonstrate that this model is reasonable and provides basis for a scientific evaluation on the whole efficiency of the CNG vehicle industry.