摘要
本文研究在次贷危机背景下长三角地区(江、浙、沪三省市)与中部六省(湖南、湖北、山西、江西、安徽和河南)的金融产业与实体经济之间的互动影响机制。通过主成分分析得出分别代表长三角地区和中部六省的金融综合指标与实体经济综合指标,基于VAR模型的方差分解分析,得出危机后金融产业与实体经济跨区域影响。在此结论的基础上,对分指标进行Granger因果检验,进一步确定具体的影响渠道。通过实证分析,建议中部六省加强金融产业与实体经济系统的稳定性,抓住金融产业中银行业,实体经济中消费与投资这三条主线,促进金融与经济协调发展,实现中部崛起。
In this paper,we research the mutual impacts between the finance industry and the real economy in the Yangtse River Delta region(Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai) and the six central provinces(Hunan,Hubei,Shanxi,Jiangxi,Anhui and Henan) under the financial crisis.Through principal components analysis,we get the total indices which stand for the real economy and finance system of the two regions.By Vector Autogression model and variance decomposition,we compare the mutual impacts between the finance industry and the real economy after the financial crisis.Based on that,we use Granger causality test to conclude the specific effects among the sub-indices.Finally,the empirical studies show that the six central provinces should strengthen the stability of the finance industry and real economy system.What's more they should catch three main lines —the banking in finance industry and the consumption,investment in real economy in order to promote the coordinated development between finance and economy and achieve the rise of Central China rapidly.
出处
《区域金融研究》
2010年第12期14-19,共6页
Journal of Regional Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71063015)
教育部人文社科重点研究基地南昌大学中国中部经济发展研究中心重点基金资助项目(08zbzx0003)
江西省教育厅高校人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(GL0934)
关键词
次贷危机
金融产业
实体经济
方差分解
Granger因果检验
Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis
Finance Industry
Real Economy
Variance Decomposition
Granger Causality Test.