城镇保障型住房用地规模预测方法探讨——以重庆市石柱县为例

A Discussion of the Prediction of the Size of Land Used for Guaranteed Housing in Urban Areas——A Case Study in Shizhu Chongqing

以石柱县城镇经济单位在岗职工人均年工资为依据,构建了预测保障型住房用地规模的框架体系,认为石柱县2012-2020年需住房保障家庭规模较2009-2011年骤减,保障型住房明显呈阶段性发展;石柱县2009-2020年保障型住房用地规划量为109 hm2.研究表明:从城镇经济单位在岗职工工资、城镇家庭规模、户均人口、家庭人均工资与人均年收入的比例、上年度人均可支配收入出发,结合容积率、建筑密度求取城镇保障型住房用地规模是一种可行的方法.

Based on the data of the annual per-capita income of on-the-job staff of urban economic units in Shizhu county,a framework was constructed to predict the land size for guaranteed housing.The result showed that from 2009 to 2020 the proportion of households in need of guaranteed housing would be reduced year by year and a two-stage development would occur.In Land Use Planning of Shizhu （2009-2020）,the land size for guaranteed housing was estimated at 109 hm2.In is concluded that the approach of predicting the land size of guaranteed housing is feasible which is based on the per-capita income of on-the-job staff of urban economic units,urban family size,population per household,family per-capita wages,household per capita income and per-capita disposable income of the previous year when it is used in combination with the calculation of plot ratio/volume fraction and building density.