基于波函数的证券市场回报率分析

Analysis of Stock Market Returns Based on A Wave Function

利用有限深方势阱中自由粒子的波函数,结合上证综指数据,得到了与实际相符合的证券市场回报率的分布函数。该函数能与实际数据很好地符合,验证了波函数模型的有效性和稳健性,表明证券市场回报率具有一定的量子效应。分布函数印证了市场回报率分布具有尖峰、不对称特征。与伦敦市场的比较发现,上海证券市场具有较高的回报率,但也存在较大的风险。这说明当前中国证券市场的投机性和风险性共存,同时也说明中国经济发展状况良好,但证券市场稳定性仍需继续加强。

This paper establishes the wave function model for the rate of stock market returns,and gives out the distribution function of the rate of stock market returns by using the historical data of Shanghai Stock Exchange（SSE） Composite Index.The distribution function exhibits strong compatibility with the returns earned on the SSE.This demonstrates that the principle from quantum mechanics can be applied to stock market at some aspect.The distribution function shows that the returns is highly leptokurtic,fat-tail,and asymmetric.Moreover,compared with the London market,the Shanghai market has higher returns,but also exists greater risk.This shows that the Chinese stock market is speculative and risky at the same time,and also shows that the economic situation of China is good,but the stability of stock markets still needs to be strengthened.