上海旅游服务贸易与经济增长的时间序列协整分析——基于后世博时代的思考

An Analysis of the Time Series of Tourism and Economic Development——Based on Shanghai World Expo 2010

2010年世博会的举办为上海旅游业乃至长三角旅游业的发展带来了重要契机。通过运用协整理论和格兰杰因果检验对2004年1月至2009年2月上海入境旅游人数、旅游消费物价指数与上海经济增长的关系展开实证分析,研究结果显示:上海入境旅游与经济增长具有长期正相关,上海入境旅游人数、旅游消费物价指数增加1%,上海经济增长分别为0.33%和0.41%。在后世博时代,如何向世界充分展示上海风采,这对旅游行业的发展,上海、长三角城市群乃至中国国家形象的提升都有重要意义。旅游业的发展推进着上海社会经济的增长,政府应从战略上重视旅游服务贸易,采取金融、法律、税收等政策扶持旅游业的发展。

The World Expo 2010 will have a positive role in promoting the tourism industry in Shanghai.This paper theoretically analyzes the coming Expo＇s influence on tourism industry.Basing on co-integration and Granger Causality theories,we demonstrate that there is a long-term positive relationship between shanghai tourism trade and economic growth.And come to the conclusion that economic would grow 0.41 percent and 0.33 percent once the number of tourism increased by 1%,consumer price index of tourism increased by 1%.The government should make use of the Expo＇s brand,take advantage of the resources of Yangtze River delta,develop multi-functions＇ trade services,and train the specialists on tourism.