广州市房地产泡沫实证研究

Guangzhou real estate industry bubble's demonstrative research

本文通过收集2000～2009年广州市房地产业各方面数据,选用多个能反映房地产泡沫的数据指标进行计算与分析。得出下面结果:①广州市由2004年开始产生房地产泡沫,随着经济的快速发展不断膨胀,到目前已处于面临破裂的状态;②政府必须通过改变由房地产业拉动GDP增长的发展模式,增加保障性住房,打击投机行为,拓宽社会投资、融资渠道等针对性措施抑制房产泡沫的恶化趋势。

This article calculates and analysis thedata of real estate industry of Guangzhou from 2000 to 2009, concludes that the real estate bubble in Guangzhou has been expanding since 2004 along with therapid economic development. The government should stopthe bubble from rupturing by changing the developing mode that pulling the GDP by real estate industry,increasing affordable housing,widening the social investment and financing channels and so on.