人民币汇率对进出口贸易的影响研究——基于汇改前后的比较分析

Research of RMB exchange rate's influence on import and export trade——comparative analysis basing on around rate exchange reform

本文运用Johansen协整方法对不同汇率制度环境下人民币汇率对我国进出口贸易的影响效应进行了比较分析,发现汇改前,无论是进口额还是出口额,均与人民币汇率不存在长期均衡关系,而汇改后的出口额却与人民币汇率存在显著的长期协整关系,且人民币汇率升值对出口的抑制效应非常显著。这意味着在研究人民币汇率对进出口贸易的影响效应时尤其不能忽略不同汇率制度环境的影响,所反映的政策含义表明政府当局在制定汇率制度时要保持审慎的态度,以避免人民币升值过快引起对我国出口的抑制效应。

This paper uses Johansen cointegration me thods to conduct a comparative analysis that the RMB exchange rate affects on the Foreign Trade under different exchange rate system.The paper finds that before Exchange rate reform,neither imports nor exports has long-term equilibrium exchange rate relationship with the RMB exchange rate,but after the reform,exports and the RMB exchange rate have significant long-term cointegration and exchange rate appreciation has a significant inhibitory effect on export trade.This means that the effect of different exchange rate regimes can not be ignored when studying the RMB exchange rate effecting on import and export trade.The policy that reflected implicates that government authorities should maintain a cautious approach to avoid excessive RMB appreciation that cause the inhibitory effect on China＇s exports.