我国洪灾发展特点及成灾机制分析

ANALYSIS ON THE CAUSE OF FLOOD CALAMITY IN CHINA

洪涝灾害是一种严重的自然灾害，无论是它发生的普遍性和破坏性，还是它发生的经常性，都居各种自然灾害之首。本文利用大量数据对我国洪灾发展的特点进行了分析，并指出：与历史相比，近年来我国洪涝灾害呈“频发、灾重”的趋势。在此基础上，对洪水的成灾机制进行了介绍，并将诱发洪涝灾害的原因分自然和人为两个方面进行了比较全面的论述。其中，自然原因包括地理条件、气象特点和异常天文活动影响三个方面，分析得出“在洪涝灾害的高风险中谋求发展是我国较长时期的基本国情”的结论；人为原因主要是人类活动引起的各个方面消极影响，从分蓄洪湖泊退化、水土流失、河道设障、堤防标准低四个方面进行了论述，这些是我国洪灾的促成因素。鉴于我国洪水频发的原因比较复杂，提出我国未来减灾必须走生态减灾、工程减灾、管理减灾。

Flood is a serious calamity. The paper analyses the characteristics about flood development in China with lots of data and concludes that flood in China developed with the characteristics of high frequency and huge destruction recently. Based on it, the paper describes the mechanism of flood calamity and divides the cause of flood into two parts: natural factor and human factor. Natural factor includes three aspects, i.e., geographical condition, climate characteristic and effect of abnormal astronomy activities. Conclusion that it is the basic situation of China to develop economy with high risk of flood clammily in a long term is presented as an outcome of research on the natural factor. Human factor is the negative influence of humanity activities, including degeneration of lakes restoring capacity for floodwater, water and soil losing, barrier in watercourses, low flood control criteria of dykes, which is apt to bring about flood damages. In view of the complexity of causes of floods in China, the paper proposes that the ecological measure, engineering measure, administration measure, science and technology measure should be synthetically carried out in order to control flood calamity in the future.