江苏交通运输业与地区经济发展的灰色关联分析:1999-2008

Analysis of Grey Relatedness between Transportation and Regional Economy in Jiangsu from 1999 to 2008

文章采用灰色关联法对1999-2008年江苏交通运输业与地区经济发展的关联程度进行了实证测定,研究发现这10年里江苏交通运输业货运周转量指标的关联系数变化相对平稳,运输船舶净载量、民用车辆拥有量和固定资产投资额等指标的关联系数在2005年后均快速下降。提出了进一步提高江苏交通货运周转量、加大对运输船舶净载量、民用车辆拥有量和旅客周转量指标的关注度、动态变动地区交通运输业发展战略等措施,以促进江苏交通运输业与地区经济的协调发展。

The correlation between transportation and regional economy in Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2008 is conducted by GR method in the paper.The results indicate that the correlation coefficient of freight turnover fluctuates smoothly in the decade,and the correlation coefficients of carrier＇s net load,the number of civilian vehicle＇s ownership and the investment of fixed assets have decreased rapidly after 2005.In addition,the following countermeasures are put forward,i.e.enhancing freight turnover,concentrating more on carrier＇s net load,the number of civilian vehicle＇s ownership and traveler turnover,dynamically changing regional transportation development strategies,etc.in order to promote the harmonious development between transportation and regional economy in Jiangsu.