新郑市水资源需求预测研究

Prediction of Water Resource Demands in Xinzheng City

河南省新郑市地处中原半干旱半湿润地区,水资源相对匮乏,人均水资源量200m3,属于严重缺水地区。目前新郑市地下水超量开采,地表水污染严重,存在着一系列较严重的水资源问题。随着人口的增加,城市化进程加快,国民经济的发展及生活水平的提高,水资源将直接制约新郑市经济发展和小康社会的建设。针对新郑市地区特点,采用3种不同的经济发展方案,应用定额法分别对不同水平年的需水量进行预测,结合可供水量和现状用水问题分析确定了较合理的方案。根据需水预测结果和新郑市水资源存在的问题及实际情况,给出了适当的建议和对策,为新郑市水资源的合理配置和规划管理提供参考。

Xinzheng City of He＇nan Province is located in the central plain of China with semi-arid and sub-humid climate.Per capital water resources is 200 m3,being comparatively scarce.The city belongs to the region where is seriously short of water resources.Groundwater is excessively exploited and surface water is seriously polluted at present.There is a series of serious problems of water resources in the city.Its economic development and well-off society construction are directly restricted with growing population,accelerating urbanization,economical development,and improvement of people＇ living standards.Three different economic development schemes are considered based on the regional characteristics.Then quota method is applied to predict the water demands at different levels.A reasonable scheme is determined after the analysis of actual water quantity and current water issues.Some suggestions and solutions are put forward at last,combined with the forecasted results of water demands and the situation of existing water problems in Xinzheng City,which can provide a support for decision-making and digital foundation for logical water resource allocation.