南京市经济增长与环境污染关系的研究

Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution of Nanjing City

文章根据1985～2007年南京统计年鉴的有关数据,选取工业三废中的废水排放量、废气中的SO2排放量、烟尘排放量、固体废物产生量、工业粉尘排放量等指标,构造环境污染与人均GDP之间的计量经济模型,并分析研究它们之间的关系.研究结果表明:南京市废水排放量、SO2排放量、烟尘排放量、工业粉尘排放量等环境指标均符合环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,其拐点对应的人均GDP依次为4464、10189、9007和12844元(1990年价格),发生转折的年份分别为1992、1995、1994、1996年;工业固体废物排放量还没有出现拐点,其排放量仍在持续增加.产业结构调整、环保投资和强有力的环境管理是推动南京市在较低的人均GDP跨越环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的重要驱动因子,南京市今后只有进一步完善目前的环境保护政策,加大环境保护工作的力度,才可能最终实现生态环境质量的全面改善.

Based on the relevant data in Statistical Yearbook of Nanjing from 1985 to 2007,the indicators of waste water emissions,SO2 emissions,smoke emissions,industrial solid waste emissions,industrial dust emissions are selected to construct the econometric models of environmental pollution and per capita GDP and analyse the relationship between them.The results show that the environmental indicators of waste water emissions,SO2 emissions,smoke emissions,industrial dust emissions are in line with the Environmental Kuznets curves,and the inflection points corresponding to per capita GDP occurred in the years 1992,1995,1994,and 1996 with 4464,10189,9007,and 12844 yuan（prices in 1990） respectively.However,the inflection point has not yet occurred to industrial solid waste emissions and in fact,its emissions are still increasing steadily.The important driving factor to promote Nanjing＇ development at a relatively low per capita GDP across the environmental Kuznets curve inflection point lies in industrial restructuring,investment in environmental protection and strong environmental management.Only when Nanjing in the future further improves the existing environmental protection policies,strengthen the projects of environmental protection,can it eventually achieve an overall improvement in the quality of the ecological environment.