上市公司分配现金股利概率的probit和logit模型对比研究

Comparing analysis of the Probit model and the Logit model to the probability of assigning cash dividends

该文根据著名经济学家McFaden行为理性选择剖视理论,利用Probit和Logit二元离散选择模型的对比分析,定量研究公司财务及经营状况对发放现金股利概率边际变化的影响,进一步为偏好现金股利型投资者的投资决策作参考。与其它同类研究相比,该文的独创性结论有:流通股占总股本比率对上市公司发放现金股利的影响呈开口向上的二次曲线形,同时相比于每股盈余,每股现金净含量对发放现金股利概率有同样重要影响。

The paper analysis the cash dividends probability boundary change using the Probit and Logit dual separate preference model according to renowned economist Mcfadden＇s theory for behavior rationality choice.Compared with other similar studies the paper＇s original conclusions are： outstanding shares of the total equity ratio was the impact of second-shaped curve opening up.compared to earnings per share in net cash payment of cash dividends on the probability of impact are equally important.