货币国际化进程影响因素研究——基于外汇储备职能的实证分析

On Influencing Factors of Currency Internationalization:Empirical Study on International Currency Functioning as Foreign Exchange Reserves

本文运用非线性动态面板回归模型对货币国际化进程的影响因素进行实证分析,发现从动态分析角度看,国际货币的惯性对主要国际货币占外汇储备比重有显著的解释力,一国经济规模是影响货币国际化的最显著因素。提出资本账户开放程度并不是一国货币国际化的决定因素,人民币国际化进程中资本账户开放应该循序渐进。

The paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of currency internationalization by a nonlinear dynamic panel regression model. It discovers that the inertia of international currency provides a sound explanation of the proporation of major international currencies to foreign exchange reserves and a country＇s economic scale has the most significant effect on currency internationalization. So it arrives at a conclusion that the openness of capital account is not the determinant of currency internationalization and China should open its capital account step by step during the process of RMB internalization.