台湾直接投资祖国大陆对海峡两岸贸易的影响

The Impact of Taiwan＇s FDI in Chinese Mainland on Cross-Strait Trade

20世纪80年代末期以来，台湾对大陆的直接投资与两岸贸易均取得长足发展。本文运用协整方法和误差修正模型，考察了1989—2009年台湾对大陆直接投资与两岸进出口贸易之间的长期均衡关系以及相应的短期偏离调整机制。结果表明台湾对大陆直接投资与两岸贸易存在长期均衡关系。在短期内台湾对大陆直接投资与大陆对台湾出口的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较快，而台湾对大陆直接投资与大陆自台湾进口的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度则极为缓慢。

Taiwan＇s FDI in Chinese Mainland and cross-Strait trade are growing fast since the late 1980s. Based on co-integration and error correction model, this paper studies the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term adjustment mechanism between Taiwan＇s FDI in Chinese Mainland and cross-Strait trade, and reveals there is rapid adjustment of relationship between Taiwan＇s FDI in Chinese mainland and Mainland exports to Taiwan from short term deviation to long term equilibrium, but the adjustment of relationship between Taiwan/s FDI in Chinese mainland and Mainland imports from Taiwan from short term deviation to long term equilibrium is extremely slow.