加卸载响应比理论在包头西M_S6.4地震预报中的应用

APPLICATION OF THE LOAD UNLOAD RESPONSE RATIO THEORY TO PREDICTING THE BAOTOU M _S6.4 EARTHQUAKE

用加卸载响应比理论对包头西 MS6 .4 地震前加卸载响应比随时间的变化进行了较详细的研究.结果表明,震前加卸载响应比有较明显的上升异常.异常出现的时间和异常幅度大小不但与所选择的区域和震级下限有关,而且还与发震构造和控震构造有关.异常与地震的对应关系表现为:上升异常出现、转折并恢复到正常值附近时发震.异常持续时间,短的1 a 以上,最长4 a 左右.

The variation characteristics of the load unload response ratio with time before the BaotouM S6.4 earthquake are studied by using the load unload response ratio theory.The result showed that there is obvious anomaly before the earthquake.The influence factors on the anomaly contained not only time,amplitude,selected region and lower limit magnitude,but also seismotectonics and structures controlling earthquakes.For the relationship between anomaly and earthquake,there will be an earthquake when the ascendant anomaly has arisen,had a turn in the course of events and returned to normal.The time of anomaly is sustained from one year to four years.