大兴安岭森林松毛虫发生的气象条件相关分析

The Correlative Analysis on Meteorological Conditions of The Wood Pinecaterpillar Occurrence in Da Hinggan Mountains

利用鄂伦春旗3个林业局森林松毛虫和阿里河气象站5个历史气象要素资料,结合统计分析理论和松毛虫发生发展理论,整理和分析出森林松毛虫与气象要素变化的相关关系。筛选出影响松毛虫发生面积的5个气象因子,并分别对其做相关分析。结果表明:与松毛虫发生面积密切相关的因子主要有年降水量、年平均气温和年积温(≥10℃),松毛虫发生面积同3因子的相关系数分别为-0.6672、0.6445和0.6078。选择这3个因子利用多元回归建立松毛虫发生面积预测方程,通过试用此预报模式可以为林业部门的防虫、灭虫提供有效指导。

Apply to the wood pinecaterpillar data of three forestry bureau in Elunchun banner and five historical meteorological elements in Alihe station,combined with the statistic analysis theory and occurrence and development law of the wood pinecaterpillar,the correlative relation is sorted and analysed between the wood pinecaterpillar and meteorological elements.Five meteorological factors are filtered and correlative analyzed separately influencing on the pinecaterpillar occurance areas.The results show that in the case of area is closely related to the key factors for annual precipitation,mean annual temperatures and annual accumulated temperature（≥10℃）,the correlation coefficient is respectively-0.6672,0.6445 and 0.6078 with pinecaterpillar occurance areas.Choosing this three factors,using multiple regession theory,the prediction equations are established about the pinecaterpillar occurance areas.