农产品出口贸易对农业经济增长贡献的实证分析——以福建省为例

An Empirical Study on the Contribution of Agricultural Products Export to the Growth of Agricultural Economy——A Case Study of Fujian Province

选用1995—2008年的经济数据,对福建省农产品出口贸易与福建省农业经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:福建省农产品出口与农业经济增长之间存在相关关系,且农产品出口金额每增加1单位,农业总产值将增长17.446个单位;但经格兰杰因果分析,二者不存在因果关系。福建省农产品出口对农业GDP增长的贡献率波动较大,与全国相比还存在较大差距。因此,应积极发展外向型农业,以进一步促进福建省经济的发展。

Based on economic data gathered between 1995 and 2008,an empirical study was made on the relations between agricultural product export and the growth of agricultural economy of Fujian Province.The result indicated that correlation exists between the two,namely,when the export volume of agricultural products grow by one unit,the total agricultural GDP will grow 17.446 units.However,Granger causality analysis indicates no causal relation between them.Obvious fluctuation was noticed in terms of contribution of agricultural products export to agricultural GDP.Therefore,it is necessary to develop export-oriented agriculture to promote Fujian＇s economic development.