家具产业集聚外部驱动因素的实证研究——来自1988～2008数据的PCA与Granger检验分析

A Empirical Analysis On Furniture Industry Cluster of External Motivation——Based on 1988-2008 Provincial data PCA models and granger test

通过分析获取了产业集聚外部动因有效的变量,采集1988～2008年家具产业两位数的相关数据,研究家具产业基尼系数、家具产业国内消费量、出口量、全国固定投资额、居民消费水平5个变量的关系,以家具产业基尼系数为被解释变量建立PCA模型,并提取方差进行回归分析,并对变量间进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。结论表明投资与家具产业集聚是双向因果的关系,国内家具消费与家具产业集聚是弱的双向因果关系,家具出口则是单向因果关系。揭示出家具产业长期以来的低附加值生产方式,在没有或外部需求出现较强波动时,可能会造成多米诺骨牌效应,从而加快产业集聚反向替代的进程。

The effective variables of industry cluster are gained through analyzing the external driving power.The relationship between the five variables are researched from two decimal data of year 1988 to 2008,which are Gini coefficient of the furniture industry,domestic consumption of furniture industry,furniture industry exports,fixed investment in the country and the national consumption level.Gini coefficient as explanatory variables,PCA model is established and extracted variance regression is researched,Granger test results are also conducted to analyze.It is concluded that investment and furniture industrial cluster is the two-way causal relationship and consumption and domestic furniture is the weak two-way causality,furniture export appears one way relationship.Production of furniture industry is the low value-added way for long time.It may cause a Domino phenomenon if external demand appears strong fluctuations,thus speeding up the process of industrial agglomeration reverse substitution.