浅析现阶段人民币汇率制度改革

An Analysis of the Present Reform of Exchange System in China

近年来，央行外汇储备逐年上升，屡屡创历史新高，人民币汇率的升值预期构成了货币市场的主流心理。笔者认为，逐步加大人民币汇率的浮动区间，实行更为灵活的汇率机制已经成为一种趋势。本文通过现行汇率制度进行分析，结合1997年亚洲金融危机和80年代日元汇率问题的事例分析，试探现在人民币汇率制度变动的风险和现阶段汇率宏观调控的必要性。

In the recent years, China＇s foreign exchange reserve increases gradually every year, and refurbishes its recorder. Expection of RMB exchange rate inereasing becomes the main psychological trend in the monetany market. We think that it is a trend to expand floating area of RMB exchange rate and carry out more flexible exchange system. By analyzing the current exchange system and in view of Asian finance crisis in 1997 and yen exchange rate issue in late 80＇s, this thesis tries to discuss risks of transition of RMB exchange rate and necessarity of macro-control over the present rate of exchange.