摘要
目的选择感染性腹泻疫情报告资料,通过不同统计分析工具预测和比较,建立传染病暴发流行的预警分析方法。方法用时间序列分析各方法建模预测,比较各方法预测值的均方误差,确定最佳预测方法,并应用于建立预警线和控制图。结果移动平均法、指数平滑法、AR、ARMA和AR IMA分析法中,均方误差分别为0.039、0.156、0.153、0.155、0.160。结论在浙江省近年感染性腹泻发病率的预测中,时间序列分析多种方法中以移动平均法效果较好。建立预警线和控制图有利于疾病的流行和暴发的预警。
Objective To provide the fittest model for forecasting infectious diarrhea（other than cholera,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid） in Zhejiang province and provide the alert method for disease epidemic and outbreak.MethodsMean Square Errors（MSEs） of 5 predictive analysis methods were compared and the fittest model was chosen,and the early warning line and control chart were set up.Results MSEs of 5 methods were 0.039,0.156,0.153,0.155 and 0.160 respectively.Conclusion Moving average analysis seemed to be the fittest method in the prediction of infectious diarrhea（other than cholera,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid） incidence in Zhejiang province.The setting of early warning line and control chart would facilitate the early warning of disease epidemic or outbreak.
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2010年第12期994-997,共4页
Disease Surveillance
关键词
感染性腹泻
预测模型
预警界值
控制图
infectious diarrhea
predictive model
alert threshold
control chart
