河南省能源强度分解及节能减排政策分析

Analysis on decomposing energy intensity and policy implications of energy-saving and emission reduction for Henan

通过建立要素需求模型和能源强度分解模型,将能源强度变化同能源需求、要素替代、技术进步和经济发展等因素联系起来.估计结果显示,预算约束和技术进步是能源强度变化的两个基本因素,它们的影响效果相当但效果相反.能源替代和经济增长是不容忽视的影响因素,但能源需求影响效果很小.要降低能源强度,首先要转变技术进步方式,其次要改革能源价格管理体制,用价格信号调节能源消费行为.

By constructing translog cost function,this paper systematically and econometrically decomposes energy intensity into various effects of budget constrain,technological change,factor substitution,energy demand and economic growth.The estimated results show that the effects of budget constrain and technological change are two major determinants of energy intensity changes.However,their effects are equivalent but totally opposite.The former is positive and the later is negative.The effects of energy-labour substitution and economic growth are other factors while the effect of energy demand is very small.To reduce energy intensity,the patterns of economic growth should be changed first,and then energy pricing system need to be reformed,using market signal to adjust energy consumption behaviour.