碳关税对我国经济影响评价

Evaluation on the Carbon Tariff Effect on China's Economy

本文利用可计算一般均衡模型,对其他国家可能针对我国实行的碳关税政策进行了模拟。研究发现,该政策将对我国能源、钢铁冶炼以及水泥石灰石膏、耐火材料等非金属矿物制造业部门的出口产生很大的负面影响;而金融保险、信息传输服务业、印刷媒介复制业、玩具娱乐用品制造业、水的生产供应业和塑料制品业以及油气开采和管道运输业等部门出口反而增加。同时碳关税的征收降低了我国企业的生产积极性,使得我国GDP、社会总产出、国内供给以及进出口总量都不同程度地下降;进而导致社会投资、劳动就业以及企业与居民收入下降;而居民消费因价格普遍下跌而略有上升。从环境效率角度而言,碳关税的减排效率很低。

With the CGE model,this paper simulated the potential influences of carbon tariff policy that may be carried by other countries towards China＇s exports.Simulating results indicate that it will negatively affect the exports of energy,iron and steel smelting,cement,lime and plaster,fireproof materials and other nonmetallic mineral products,but will promote other sectors exports,like finance,insurance,telecommunication,printing,reproduction of recording media,toys,entertainment,athletic and recreation products,water production and supply,plastic products,extraction of petroleum and natural gas,and pipelines transport.In the macro-level,carbon tariff will depress the enthusiasm for production,hence decrease the GDP,final output,domestic supply and the amount of export and import.Furthermore,the income of enterprises and residents will also drop with the shrink of social investment and labor demand.Even so,residents＇ consumption shows up a slight increase due to an universal price fall caused by carbon tariff.The abatement efficiency of carbon tariff is rather low from the environmental aspect.