徐州市秋旱灰预测

Gray Forecasting on Autumn Drought in Xuzhou

对徐州市1960～2009年秋季降水量进行Z坐标变换,求得旱涝指数,以旱涝指数确定秋旱年份序列。对秋旱灾变序列取不同维数,建立GM(1,1)预测模型群,预测结果为灰区间,提出用频次来白化灰区间,确定下一个秋旱发生年份,以期对徐州秋季干旱预测研究有一定的参考价值。

Using the fall precipitation of Xuzhou during 1960-2009,Z-index was obtained and the drought index was determined.The drought year sequence was determined by using drought index.Different dimensions of autumn drought disaster sequence were obtained.Using m-GM（1,1）,the occurrence of autumn drought forecasting model in Xuzhou was established and the prediction result was grey interval.It was proposed that the grey interval should be whitened by using frequency.The occurrence year of the next drought was confirmed,so as to provide some reference value for the prediction research of autumn drought in Xuzhou.