水质超标风险率的CSPPC模型

CSPPC model for risk rate of pollutant concentrations exceeding the standard values

水质的变化受多种不确定因素影响， 是一种随机过程． 本文分析了水质变化过程中的超标风险性， 基于随机点过程理论， 构造了水质超标风险分析的成丛随机点过程复合（ＣＳＰＰＣ） 模型， 并应用于深圳市西丽水库出水口断面水质超标风险率估算， 由实际资料对其水质超标点过程的分布进行了拟合优度检验， 获得满意计算结果． ＣＳＰＰＣ 理论和方法是非突发性环境风险大小识别的有效途径．

In this paper,the features of the risk for pollutant concentrations exceeding the standard values(RCESV) are analyzed and the Clustering Stochastic Point Process Compound (CSPPC) model is developed based on the theory of stochastic point process.The model is used to evaluate the rate of RCESV at the outlet of Xili Reservoir.The distribution of the point process for concentrations exceeding the standard values is tested and fitted by measured data.The results are satisfactory.