美联储量化宽松政策及其对大宗商品的影响

The US Fed's quantitative easing policy and its influence on commodity prices

面对大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机,美国政府实施了规模宏大的财政和货币双重刺激,但美国经济仍然处在低增长的边缘,而且失业率居高不下。为此,美联储在2010年11月初宣布,继续维持零利率政策不变,同时推出第二轮量化宽松货币政策。该政策一经公布,就受到众多国家的反对和指责。在后布雷顿森林体系下,美国的宏观经济政策具有明显的外溢效应,政策的成本和收益是不对称的。对美国而言,持续扩张是合理的政策选择,而且货币宽松优于财政扩张。美国在实施量化宽松政策的过程中,一方面可以刺激国内经济增长和促进就业,另一方面由此产生的流动性过剩和弱美元将通货膨胀和资产泡沫等风险外溢至国外,从而对外围国家产生实质性冲击。欧洲和日本将面临政策收放的两难,新兴经济体将面临通货膨胀和本币升值的双重压力。在美元中长期贬值的趋势下,大宗商品价格将保持高位震荡,而且波动可能加剧。

Addressing the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression,the U.S government has implemented a large-scale stimulus strategy by expanding fiscal policy and easing monetary measures since 2008.However the economic growth rate is still very low and the unemployment rate is very high.Therefore the Fed announced on November 3,2010,it would maintain the target range for the benchmark(Fed Funds) rate at 0～0.25 percent and conduct a second wave of quantitative easing(QE) by the end of the second quarter of 2011.This QE strategy was opposed and criticized by many countries shortly after its release.In the post-Bretton Woods System,the cost-benefit contributions are obviously asymmetrical,for the macroeconomic policies of the U.S.have significant spillover effects on other countries.So for the U.S.continuing expansionary policies is very rational and the monetary easing approach is its top priority.The QE policy is helpful to American economic recovery and employment.But the excessive liquidity and weak dollar led by the QE strategy put great pressure on inflation and asset bubbles in peripheral economies,and significant shocks might emerge from them.Europe and Japan face great uncertainty in expanding or not their macroeconomic policies.The emerging economies may experience distinctive inflationary and appreciation pressure.The depreciating dollar will push commodity prices to a high level with greater fluctuation than before.