中俄油气合作现状和发展前景

Oil and gas cooperation between China and Russia:status and prospects

经过14年的努力,中俄油气合作发展到了一个新的阶段,体现在:中俄原油管道建成投产,天然气管道谈判取得实质性成果,油气资源勘探开发合作有新的进展,石油加工和石油化工方面的合作进展较快,原油贸易稳步增长等。未来5-10年将是中俄油气合作发展的关键时期。制约中俄油气合作的主要因素包括:俄罗斯处在发展战略调整期,能源政策不稳定;俄罗斯对华战略疑虑并未明显消减;俄罗斯内部利益集团的矛盾对中俄油气合作也会产生一些负面影响;外部竞争因素对中俄油气合作有一定的制约作用;俄罗斯东部地区油气资源开发滞后;中国天然气利用配套基础设施建设滞后,市场开发还有很多工作要做。为深化中俄油气合作,建议:深化中俄"战略协作伙伴关系",增强双方的政治互信;加强战略研究,了解俄罗斯的政策变化;坚持双赢互利原则,以经济利益为中心,积极务实推进合作;加强基础建设,完善价格机制;培训人才,做好中俄长期合作的准备。

After 14 years of effort Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation has reached a new phase of development,reflected in:a China-Russia crude oil pipeline put into operation,substantive results achieved in natural gas pipeline negotiations,new progress in oil and gas exploration and development cooperation,quite rapid progress in cooperation in the oil-processing and petrochemical fields,steady growth in crude oil trading,etc.The next 5 to 10 years will be the key period for development of Sino-Russian energy cooperation.The main factors constraining oil and gas cooperation between China and Russia consist of:an adjustment phase in Russia's development strategy;Russian energy policy uncertainty;doubts about Russia's strategy toward China and no clear reduction in such doubts;conflicts between interest groups inside Russia toward Russia-China oil and gas cooperation and any negative effects from that;external factors competitive to China-Russia oil and gas cooperation that have a certain restraining effect;lag in Russia's eastern region's oil and gas resources development;lag behind construction of supporting infrastructure in China's natural gas use of that infrastructure,while market development still has a lot of work to do.The following recommendations are made to deepen China-Russia oil and gas cooperation:deepen the Sino-Russian 'strategic partnership' to enhance mutual political trust;strengthen strategic research to better understand Russia's policy changes;adhere to the principle of win-win mutual benefit as the core economic interest and actively and pragmatically promote cooperation;strengthen infrastructure;improve the pricing mechanism;and train personnel to enable good long term ChinaRussia cooperation.