企业技术创新投资动力学模型与演化分析

Dynamic Model and Evolutionary Analysis of Enterprise's Technological Innovative Investment

为了揭示企业技术创新投资的演化行为与规律,构建以差分形式表示的企业技术创新投资经济增长非线性动力学模型。选取规模以上大中型工业企业的有关数据,采用差分演化算法进行了模型参数的优化,并对识别后的模型进行了计算机模拟,分析企业技术创新投资系统产生混沌运动的内在结构和外部扰动两大动力因素。得出的几点结论是:(1)可以通过调节人均研发经费投入与科技活动人员比率来改变企业技术创新投资系统的演化特性;(2)并不是对二者的投资越多越好;(3)可以利用系统分岔时的迅速增长契机实现企业的跨越式发展;(4)对二者的投资越大,系统进入分岔状态的速度就越快,走向混沌运动的速度也越快。

In order to reveal the evolution behavior and the law of enterprises technological innovative investment（ETII）,an economic growth nonlinear dynamic model of ETII,represented in a differential form,was constructed.A set of related data from large and medium-sized industrial enterprises were selected and differential evolution algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the model,then the identified model was simulated with a computer.The two chaotic motion causes of ETII system,internal structure and external disturbance,were analyzed.Conclusions are as following：（1） Evolution characteristics of ETII system could be changed by adjusting the value of RD investment per person and the ratio of RD personnel;（2） it doesn＇t mean that the more the better about investment in these two aspects,the better it is;（3） the opportunity of rapid increase at the bifurcation of ETII system could be fully used to implement leap-forward development.（4） The more RD investment or the higher RD personnel ratio,the faster bifurcation is and the faster chaotic motion of the system is.