2008年新疆和静5.3级地震异常特征及短临跟踪回顾分析

Retrospective Analysis on Short-term Tracing and Prediction before Hejing M_S5.6 Earthquake in Xinjiang in 2008

2008年8月30日新疆和静发生5.3级地震,位于新疆年度地震危险区内。震前由本文作者组成的南天山东段6级地震危险区短临跟踪小组于2008年6月中旬提出了短临预报意见。本文回顾分析了这次地震前开展的短临跟踪的工作思路、前兆异常的分析讨论及地震短期预测等,并对地震短临跟踪预报工作做一些探讨。

The Hejing MS5.6earthquake occurred on Aug.30,2008,located in an annual seismic risk region in Xinjiang Ugyur Autonomous Region.A group formed by authors for tracing and predicting short-term earthquakes in the east wing of South Tianshan had proposed a short-term prediction in middle of June before the earthquake.In this paper,the work thinking,analysis of anomalous precursors and process of short-term prediction before the event are retrospectively analyzed.Some discussion for short-term earthquake tracing and prediction are also presented.