投资项目现金流序列的分式布朗运动预测

Forecast on Fractional Brownian Movement of Investment Project Cash Flow Sequence

投资项目收入现金流的预测目前以定性分析为主.文中根据项目现金流序列的共性,证明项目现金流序列具有分式布朗运动特性,并首次采用分式布朗运动对投资项目的收入现金流序列进行预测,还解决了其中赫斯特指数的确定.最后用一个素例验证分析,所得结果可广泛适用于项目经济评估实际,提高项目决策水平.

Investment project income cash flow forecast present by qualitative analysis primarily.According to the general character of the project cash flow sequence,the paper proved that the project cash flow sequence has the characteristic of fractional Brownian movement,and used the fractional Brownian movement to carry on the forecast for the first time to the investment project income cash flow sequence,but also solved Hearst index determination.Finally used a case to confirm the analysis,the obtained result may widely be suitable for the project economic appraisal reality,raises the project＇s decision -making level.