“馅饼”与“陷阱”:经济增长之于政治稳定的双向效应——基于法国大革命和亚非拉、中国现代化转型的历史考察

Pie and Pit:the Two-way Effect of Economic Growth on Political Stability

经济增长毫无疑问在一定程度上有利于政治稳定,但是经济增长并不必然促成政治稳定,它们之间也并非完全同向运行。实际上,经济增长与政治稳定是两个独立目标。经济增长过程出现的"伴生物",时刻侵蚀着经济增长孕育的稳定基因。因此,经济增长对于政治稳定而言,其功能就表现出双向效应:它既可能成为政治稳定的"馅饼",也可能成为政治稳定的"陷阱"。经济增长通向政治稳定的必由之路是做到尽可能利用经济增长的正效应,而克服其负效应。

Economic growth is good for political stability to some extent. But this is not necessarily the case. Actually, economic growth and political stability are two independent goals. The ＂commitment＂ of the former constantly affects the elements of the latter. Growth will produce some two-way effect, becoming both a pie and a pit of political stability. The correct way of achieving political stability through economic growth is to make full use of its positive effects while overcoming its negative effects.