应对水资源争端:中印策略的博弈论分析

Sino-Indo Strategy Game on Water Resource Dispute

近些年来,不但领土问题一直制约着中印关系的发展,一些新问题也开始不断涌现,其中水资源争端正日渐成为横亘在中印之间的一个棘手问题。本文以中印水资源争端为分析对象,考察其由"地方冲突"演变成"国际争端"的历程;另外,本文也着力考察中印应对策略的利弊得失,并在博弈论的分析中把握中印关系中水资源争端的现状与未来。

As one of non-traditional security problems facing both China and India,water resource security has started to affect China's bilateral relationship with India,which focuses on the controversy on the China's ambitious hydro project on the trans-border Yarlung Zengbo(Brahmaputra River).This paper examines the evolutionary process of this mounting dispute and several major factors for changing it into a potential interstate conflict through the prism of the game theory.The advantages and limitations of available countermeasures adopted by China and India are under tentative analysis.