基于形状指数和SVM的热带气旋路径预测

Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Track based on Shape Index and SVM

使用SVM预测热带气旋路径,并针对以往的预报方法中只考虑某一个时刻状态信息的缺点,提出用形状指数来表达热带气旋路径的弯曲程度,并结合其他密切相关因子,对热带气旋路径进行预报,取得了一定的效果。

Contrasting the previous prediction methods shortcomings that only consider one moment of state information,Support Vector Machine（SVM）was used as prediction of tropical cyclone track.And a shape index method was proposed to describe TC path which can be seen as a measure of curvature.Combined with other closely related factors to predict the path of tropical cyclones,they achieved certain results.