新疆中强天气过程GRAPES区域模式降水预报检验

Verifications of GRAPES Regional Model Precipitation Forecast on Severe Weather in Xinjiang

利用2009年新疆地面气象观测站的实况降水资料和GRAPES区域模式的降水预报产品,根据降水预报产品在新疆实际天气预报业务工作中的应用制定检验方案,对GRAPES区域模式12 h降水预报产品进行检验。结果表明:GRAPES区域模式的降水落区位置和落区面积预报准确率北疆高于南疆,降水落区位置预报偏南的概率比较高;各时效降水中心强度预报易偏强,随预报时效延长其准确率呈降低趋势。

Based on the rainfall observation data of Xinjiang stations and precipitation forecast products of Grapes regional model,the semidiurnal precipitation forecast products of Grapes regional model were verified using the verification scheme which was formulated according to the application of precipitation forecast products within actual weather forecasting business in Xinjiang.The results showed that the false alarm ratio of Grapes regional model precipitation forecast was high;the forecast accuracy rate of precipitation location and precipitation dimension in north Xinjiang was higher than that of south Xinjiang,and the probability of precipitation location forecast deflecting to south was relatively higher;the forecast on precipitation center intensity tender to be intensive,and the accuracy rate assumed the lessening trend with the longer time-limits.