收入差距与社会不稳定:基于中国时序数据的实证研究

Income Gap and Social Instability:an Empirical Analysis Based on Time Series Data in China

居民收入差距是否造成了社会不稳定在很大程度上决定着我们是否有必要采取措施调整收入分配差距。笔者通过建立两个协整方程考察了我国1978—2008年间收入差距与社会稳定的长期均衡关系,并运用Granger提出的检验方法验证了收入差距及其他一些经济变量与社会稳定的因果关系。结果表明:收入差距是导致社会不稳定的重要影响因素,因此调整收入分配差距无论从经济发展角度还是从政治安定层面考虑都将是一个必须的选择。另外,我们还发现:经济增长与社会稳定是相互影响的关系;城市化与劳动力流动也会导致社会不稳定;而对外开放有利于社会稳定;同时,失业数据可能存在虚假导致其与社会稳定的关系无法判断。

Whether we did have the necessity to adopt the measure to adjust division of income disparity is due to whether the resident income distribution gap did cause the society instability to a great extent.This article establishes two integration equations to inspect the income differential and the economic growth＇s long-term balanced relations of our country during 1978-2008 years,then we use the inspection procedure which is proposed by Granger confirm the causal relations of the income gap and society instability,and other economic variables.The result indicates：the income gap is material effect factor which causes the social unstable,so,regardless of from the economic development angle or from the political stable stratification plane,adjusting the income gap will be one must choose.Moreover,we also discover：the economic growth with the social stability is the mutual influence relations;The urbanization and the labor force flowing will also cause the society not to be unstable;but the opening is advantageous to the social stability;at the same time,the unemployment data possibly exists falsely,so the relations with the social stability are unable to judge.