政策性农业保险巨灾风险准备金制度研究——以北京市政策性农业保险为例

Study on the System of Policy-oriented Agricultural Insurance Catastrophic Risk Reserve Fund

农业保险的巨灾风险准备金作为一种特殊的准备金,是为了应付巨灾风险事故发生后,责任准备金不足以支付赔款的一种准备。以北京市政策性农业保险为例,运用农业经济学、计量经济学、数值计算方法等相关理论与方法,利用SPSS等相关统计软件,在已有研究的基础上,根据1983-2009年北京市农业生产及灾害损失等相关资料,采取定性研究和定量分析相结合的方法,重点对北京市农业巨灾风险准备金进行了规模测算和推论分析。从测算结果和实际需求出发,建议可以取消已经建立的巨灾风险准备金;如果继续保留该巨灾准备金,则需要从运行机制和政策环境两方面对现行制度进行优化和完善。

Agricultural insurance catastrophe risk reserve fund is a special reserve to cope with the catastrophic risk. It is used when the liability reserve is insufficient to cover the claims. Based on the policy-based agriculture insurance in Beijing as an example, using the theories and methods of agricultural economics, econometrics, numerical calculation and using SPSS and other related statistical software, based on the existing research, according to 1983-2009 Beijing agricultural production and related data loss disasters, combining the methods of quantitative analysis and qualitative research, the paper estimates and analysis the scale of the agricultural catastrophic risk reserve in Beijing. From the calculated result and the actual demand, the author suggests that the established catastrophe risk reserve can be cancelled. Otherwise, the current system should be perfected from the aspects of operation mechanism and policy environment.