马来西亚外汇储备增长的理论与实证研究

A Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Increase of Foreign Exchange in Malaysia

从上世纪70年代以来,马来西亚承接了发达国家移出的产业,从根本上改变了传统工业的生产函数,经济实力逐年增强,制造业出口迅猛发展,在世界贸易中份额上升,从而导致经常项目顺差,引发其外汇储备迅速增长。在今后甚至较长一段时期,马来西亚外汇储备还将处于高水平并仍将继续增加,这是马来西亚产业升级换代过程中必经的一个发展阶段,同时也是其它发展中经济体现在或者不久的将来在承接国际产业转移过程中将要发生的现象——某种程度上说,这是一条国际经济规律。

Since the 1970s, Malaysia have taken over industries shifted out from the developed countries so that its production function of the traditional industries has been radically changed. As a result, the economic strength witnesses a annual growth with the drastic development of the exports of the manufacturing business. And thus Malaysia enjoys an increase in its shares in world trade with the surplus of current items and a rapid increase of its foreign exchange reserve. Over a tong period of time in future, the foreign exchange reserve of Malaysia will stay at a high level with continual growth rate, which may be regarded as a necessary stage of development in the process of the updating and upgrading of the industries of the country, and which, in the meanwhile presents itself as an inevitable phenomenon in the process of international industrial transfer to be undertaken in the near future as well as in its economic embodiment of the development of other items. To some extent, this is an international economic law.