房价水平、差异化产品区位分布与城市体系

Housing Price,Location of Diversified Product and Urban System

地级及以上城市体系的扁平化趋势可能是我国经济增长粗放、产能过剩的体现。本文将Thünen模型中房价水平对差异化产品区位分布的影响关系植入到新经济地理学Krugman-Helpman模型,详细阐述城市房价水平过快上涨(特别是大型城市)对差异化产品区位选择产生扩散倾向的内在机制,并利用1998—2007年中国地级及以上城市的相关数据进行检验。通过计量模型的参数估计,我们发现,Krugman-Helpman模型中导致城市体系扁平化趋势的"非黑洞"条件在中国是成立的。这一结论意味着,通过遏制房价水平非正常过快上涨等方法来扭转城市体系的扁平化趋势可能对调整经济结构与增长方式等具有启示意义。

The flattening trend of urban system at the prefectural-level may be a manifestation of the extensive economic growth and excess capacity. This paper embedded the effect of housing price to diversified products＇ geographical distribution into the Krugman-Helpman model, described the internal, diffusion mechanism of rising urban housing price （especially large cities） on the location choice of differentiated products, using the prefectural-level＇s relevant data during 1998--2007 and by parameter estimation of empirical model, we find that the ＂non-black hole＂ condition of urban system＇s flattening trend in the Krugman-Helpman model is established in China. This means that by controlling the level of abnormal price reversing the flattening trend of city system may have an important implication on adjusting the economic structure and growth pattern.