中国入境旅游客源量的模型对比分析及预测

Comparative Analysic and Forecasting Based on Model of the International Tourism Passenger Source of China

根据2000年1月至2009年12月中国入境旅游客源量的月度统计数据,建立了灰色预测GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA乘积季节模型.借助于MATLAB及SPSS软件,对2009年1月至2009年6月中国入境旅游客源量进行分析预测,并将两种模型的预测效果进行比较,从而探索出比较合适的短期预测方法,预测方法和结果对旅游规划具有一定的参考价值.

This article was based on the monthly statistical date of the international tourism passenger source of china from January 2000 to December 2009. With the help of MATLAB and SPSS software to build up a gray prediction GM （1, 1） model and ARIMA product season model, we predicted and analyzed the international tourism passenger source of china from January to June 2009. In order to find an appropr!ate model for short-term forecasting methods,we Compared these two model .The forecast methods and results of the touring planing has certain reference value.