监管政策能否抑制商业银行亲周期行为——基于中国上市银行面板数据的经验证据

Can Regulation Policies Restrain the Pro-cyclical Behavior of Commercial Banks?——Based on Empirical Research on Panel Data of Chinese Listed Banks

当前,实施逆经济周期的宏观审慎监管已成为国际组织和各国监管当局的共识。通过对2001—2009年国内上市银行面板数据进行估计,本文发现我国商业银行具有稳定的资本缓冲计提顺周期行为,但信贷活动并不具有明显的亲周期性特征,表明监管部门的资本监管政策总体上已经渐进有效。为了更有效地提升中国金融体系的稳健性,进一步实施宏观审慎和微观审慎协调的金融监管制度,完善逆周期的资本监管机制,抑制金融机构亲周期行为应成为中国金融监管改革的必要内容。

Reflection on current global financial crisis shows that credit pro-cyclicality of financial institutions is a major cause of finance system fragility.The implementation of prudential countercyclical macro supervision has become a consensus among international organizations and regulators so as to smooth the impact on macro economy brought by financial institutions' pro-cyclicality.By estimating the panel data of listed banks from 2001 to 2009,results indicate that Chinese commercial banks have shown stable pro-cyclical features in setting levels of capital buffer,while the credit behavior is not apparently pro-cyclical.This implies that capital regulatory policies have gradually been effective on the whole in our country.In order to enhance sound financial system of China,it remains necessary to constantly implement financial regulation with coordinated macro and micro prudential supervision,improve countercyclical capital supervision regimes and restrain pro-cyclical behaviors of financial institutions.