“中等收入陷阱”与中国发展道路——基于国际经验教训的视角

"Middle Income Trap" and China's Path to Development:In Perspective of International Experiences and Lessons

2010年中国人均GDP超过4 000美元,标志着正式进入"上中等收入"行列。文章对掉进"中等收入陷阱"的拉美等国家进行比较,以跨越这个"陷阱"并早已进入高收入行列的东亚"四小龙"为参照系,指出中国经济发展已经历和即将经历市场驱动、要素驱动、效率驱动和创新驱动4个阶段,以及3次跨越;目前刚进入效率驱动即"上中等收入"阶段;文章分析了中国在这个阶段容易掉进"中等收入陷阱"的各种诱因,提出避免掉进"陷阱"和经济转型的动力问题,认为制度、政策和基础设施构成了动力组合。

In 2010 Chinese GDP per capita surpassed USD 4 000,which signals that China has entered the 'upper middle income' rank.This essay compares those Latin American countries which have fallen into the 'middle income trap' with the 'East Asian tigers' which have successfully avoided this trap and entered the high income rank.China has already passed the market-driven stage and the factor-driven stage and just reached the efficiency-driven stage,and the next stage will be innovation-driven one.At the current efficiency-driven stage there are various factors that may cause China to fall into the 'middle income trap'.This essay analyzes these factors and proposes potential forces that may help avoid this trap and push forward economic transition.The author argues that proper institutions,secured by sound policies and supported with adequate infrastructure,will be the right setting of forces.