关于当前世界战略格局的几点思考

Some Considerations of Current World Strategic Framework

作者首先分析了世界战略格局概念及其主要内涵,并在辨析"过渡说"、"多极说"、"单极说"和"中美两国集团(G2)"说的基础上,提出"一超主导、多强制衡"将是未来相当长时期内世界主要战略力量之间关系的基本特征。"一超"与"多强"之间的主要矛盾是"主导"与"制衡"的矛盾,其主要目标是争夺国际规则制定权。虽然各主要力量间爆发直接军事冲突的可能性极小,但军事力量仍将是国家安全和大国地位的主要支撑,是"多极"制衡"一超"能力的根本保证。"多极世界"是一个很好的理念,但该提法却存在诸多不利之处。诸如多极世界是否稳定、多极格局是否有利于维持世界和平、我们是否具备构建多极世界战略格局的能力、积极倡导多极化对我造成的负面影响等问题都值得我们深入思考。尽管改革开放三十多年来中国取得了巨大成就,但从客观的世界战略力量对比看,如何利用好当前格局,努力在美国主导的世界上保持我们的战略机遇期,这是中国未来实现持续发展的关键。

The authors started with a definition of world strategic framework and then analyzed its major contents.Given the four different schools of 'transition','multi-polarity','uni-polarity' and 'G2',they argue that the future relationship among major powers will be characterized by 'one-superpower dominance and the check from other major powers'.The rivalry between the superpower and other major powers will be focused on the competition for the rights to formulate international regimes and rules.Even though war is unlikely between major powers,military strength remains the major support for national security and their world positions and the fundamental guarantee for other major powers to check the behavior of the United States.The authors also pointed out that 'multi-polar world' is a very good concept and aspiration of some major powers in the world.However,it may not be realistic because a multi-polar world is not necessarily a stable world,and it may not necessarily be conducive to maintaining world peace.The authors also question if China has the capability to foster a multi-polar world,and they even believe that it may produce negative impact on China to advocate multi-polar world.The imminent thing for China to do is to make full use of the existing world strategic framework,trying to extend the period of strategic opportunity as long as possible so as to maintain the sustainable development of China.