偏离—份额分析Esteban模型及其在劳动生产率分析中的应用

Esteban Model of Shift-Share Analysis and its Application in Labor Productivity Analysis

传统的偏离—份额分析模型没有考虑产业结构与竞争力分量之间的交互作用。本文详细介绍了偏离—份额分析Esteban修正模型,基于方差分析探讨Esteban模型与回归模型的融合,并将Esteban模型适当变形后用于区域劳动生产率差异分析。实证分析结果表明,1999～2008年中国31个省域劳动生产率相对全国平均水平的总偏离不断扩大,并具有"马太效应",区域间劳动生产率差异主要源于区域劳动生产率竞争力,产业就业结构变动的影响较小。

The traditional model of shift--share analysis did not consider the interaction between the competitive and industrial structure components. This paper introduces Esteban model in detail modifying the traditional model and discusses the integration of Esteban model and regression model on the basis of analysis of variance, then applies Esteban model to analyze the regional differences in labor productivity. Results of our empirical analysis based on the provincial panel data shows that the deviation of the labor productivity in 31 provinces from the national average was continually expanding with the Matthew Effect＂ in 1999 - 2008 in China. The regional differences in labor productivity were significant and mostly resulted from the regional competitiveness in labor productivity, while the changes of industrial employment structure contributed little to it.