城市空间扩展模型及对长沙市的模拟研究

Study on Urban Space Expand Model and Its Factual Simulation in Changsha

借鉴传统的元胞自动机模型自下而上的运行规则,通过引入规划控制层,将自下而上和自上而下2种运行规则结合起来,构建了城市空间扩展模型,简化了传统城市空间扩展模型计算的数据量。以长沙市为例,采用1996,1999,2002,2005年城市规划资料数据,运用城市空间扩展模型将长沙城市空间分为12个组团分片模拟,并结合人口经济模型,预测了2020年长沙城市建设用地面积、人口经济与各个片区城市空间扩展等状况,为城市规划管理决策提供参考。

The working mechanisms of the traditional cellular automata model are from bottom to top. From the city planning angle and by leading into the planning control layer, the urban space expand model is designed in this paper, which combines the working mechanisms between from bottom to top and from top to bottom. So it simplifies the calculation data of the traditional city cellular automata model. In this paper, the authors use remote sensing images and urban land use maps, urban regulatory plan maps, urban road network maps of Changsha in1996,1999,2002,2005 and developing information of urban land for the urban space expand model. In the first, Changsha urban space is divided into 12 different sub-groups in order to improve its imitation accuracy and obtain a better imitating result in this paper. In the Second, the 12 different sub-groups in Changsha are dynamic simulated based on the urban space expand model which the authors designed in this paper, and combined with the population and economy models. At last, the paper predicts the urban construction land area, population, economy and the expansion of urban space in 12 different sub-groups in Changsha in 2020. The results reveal that the urban space expand model is a reasonable model to predict urban space expand to some extent, so the authors wish the points of view in the paper can provide the decision-making basis for city planning and management.