中国新企业年金替代率研究

The Study of Chinese New Enterprise Pension Replacement Ratio

企业年金在多支柱养老保险体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。企业年金替代率是企业养老保险的一个重要指标。本文构建了一个测算企业年金替代率的现金流平衡模型。基于现金流平衡模型,我们对影响企业年金替代率的诸因素进行了敏感性分析。不同于大多数的以往研究方法,我们应用三状态Markov转换模型分析了年金基金投资收益率的走势。研究表明,延长退休年龄或提供投资收益可以提高企业年金替代率。因此,必须通过改善企业年金资产的投资环境,实施更多的税收优惠政策,以及其他措施,为促进企业年金发展创造一个良好的外部环境。

The enterprise pensions are playing a more and more important role in the system of multi-pillar endowment insurance.The replacement ratio of enterprise pension is an important indicator of the enterprise endowment insurance.This paper establishes a cash flow equivalent model for the measurement of enterprise pension replacement ratio.We analyses the sensitivity of the factors which influence the replacement ratio of enterprise pension,which is based on the cash flow equivalent model.Unlike most of the previous research methods,we analyzed the trend of pension fund investment yield rate based on Three-State Markov-Switching Model.The research indicates that postponing the retirement age and improving investment yield can enhance the replacement ratio of enterprise pension.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the investment environment of enterprise pensions property,implement more tax preferential policies,and other measures for creating a favorable external environment to promote the development of enterprise pensions.