高速公路项目运营内部危机新息GM(1,1)预警模型研究及应用

Study and Application of Innovation GM(1,1) Precaution Model for Internal Crisis in Expressway Project Operation

从运营公司内部管理的角度探讨了高速公路项目危机的预警方法.构建了一套高速公路项目运营内部危机指标体系,基于AHP法及改进的灰色预测模型建立了高速公路项目运营内部危机的预警模型.将理论运用于实践,对汉十高速公路管理处2009~2011年运营过程中的内部危机进行预测,得出了相应的结论.

The precaution methods for internal crisis in expressway project is put forward from the perspective of internal management of operating companies. Firstly, it constructs a set of precaution index system for internal crisis in expressway project operation; then, based on the AHP method and improved grey prediction model, a precaution model for internal crisis in expressway project operating is established; Finally, with the application of the theory into practice, the paper forecasts the internal crisis in the Expressway from Hankou to Shiyan in Hubei Province during the operation from 2009 to 2011 and draws corresponding conclusions.