林业重点工程对农民收入流动的影响研究

The Impact of Forestry Prority Programs on Rural Households' Income Mobility in China

1998年以来,中国先后启动了天然林保护工程、退耕还林工程、京津风沙源治理工程等六项林业重点工程,每项林业重点工程采取了补贴、限制或者禁止林木商业采伐、禁止利用等多项政策。采用15个案例县的1995-2006年3096个样本数据分析林业重点工程对农民收入流动和收入长期不平等的影响,采用计量经济学分析方法,计量每个林业重点工程对农民收入流动的影响。研究结果显示:1)样本农户的收入流动总体很低;2)六项林业重点工程对样本农户收入流动表现出不同的影响。京津风沙源治理工程、退耕还林工程和防护林工程的实施在不同程度上促进了样本农户收入流动;天然林保护工程、野生动植物保护与自然保护区工程和重点地区速生丰产林基地建设工程对样本农户收入流动没有显著的影响;产生这些格局的原因在于林业重点工程的政策及其区域分布不同所致。

Since 1998,the Government of China has launched and restructured to Natural Forest Protection Program,Sloping Land Conversion to Forest or Grass Coverage Program,the Industrial Timber Plantation Program,the Shelterbelt Development Program in the three-Norths（North,Northeast and Northwest of China） and the Yangtze River Basin and other Regions,the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin,the Wildlife Conservation and the Nature Reserve Development Program.Subsidy,control logging or logging ban and other policy arrangements have been adopted.We use 3096 sample households of the years from 1995 to 2006 in 15 counties to analyze the impact of Priority Forest Programs on rural households＇ income mobility.The research results indicate that 1） rural household＇s income mobility is low in general;2） Sloping Land Conversion to Forest or Grass Coverage Program,the Shelterbelt Development Program in the three-Norths and the Yangtze River Basin and other Regions,the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin have pushed rural household income mobility;others have not significantly affected rural households＇ income mobility,the reason for the situation is the different policy options and regional distributions of these programs.